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Sunday, May 10, 2026
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The New York Times Says Democrats Will Sweep the Senate. Republicans Have Heard That Before.

Republicans, take a breath.

Sunday's final New York Times/Siena poll had Democrats leading in all seven of the Senate races both parties are watching most closely. If you believe it, Democrats are headed for a 54-46 Senate.

Before you believe it, remember 2020. That year, the final Times/Siena poll had Joe Biden up 11 points in Wisconsin. He won the state by less than one.

In 2024, the Times' final polls had Kamala Harris ahead or tied in most of the swing states. Donald Trump won all seven.

In 2016, the Times gave Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the presidency.

Same newspaper. Same confidence. Same result for Republicans who showed up anyway.

Look closely at this year's numbers and they're a lot less scary than the headline. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan by two points, 48% to 46%, well inside the poll's margin of error. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Rep. Ashley Hinson by a single point, 48% to 47%. Ohio and Kansas are close enough to fall within the margin of error too.

That's four of the seven races the Times says Democrats will win, and every one of them is close enough to flip if the poll is off by even a little.

Even Nate Silver, the best-known numbers guy in politics and no Republican, wouldn't commit. "Dems can absorb a modest-sized polling error and win the Senate," he wrote. "Not a large one."

And polls of these races have produced large errors before.

There's a reason the Times keeps missing Republicans. The people who answer pollsters aren't a mirror of the people who vote. Republicans, especially working-class and rural voters, are less likely to pick up calls from strange numbers and talk to a pollster. The Times has said it adjusted its methods after 2024 to account for that. It made adjustments after 2016 and 2020 too.

The best news for Republicans may be buried in the poll itself. Voters who made up their minds in the final month broke toward Republicans by about nine points. Those late deciders are the people who decide close races, and they're moving right.

Then there's Election Day. Republicans have increasingly been voting in person on the day itself, while Democrats bank their votes early. In 2024, Democrats led the early returns, and Republicans caught up and won once the Election Day votes came in. Early leads and pre-election polls can both look a lot better for Democrats than the final count.

None of this means Tuesday is in the bag. It means the race is a lot more open than the Times wants you to believe. Four of these seven races are within the margin of error. Late deciders are breaking right, and the pollster making the prediction has missed Republicans in three straight presidential elections.

The left is already calling it a "tsunami." They called it a blue wave in 2016 and 2024 too.

Polls open at 7 a.m. The polls that count are the ones you vote in.

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