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Senate GOP Wires Millions to Save Texas After Polls Show Extremely Tight Race Between Ken Paxton and James Talarico

The Senate Leadership Fund just wired $32 million into Texas through a state-level PAC. That's not a donation. That's not a hedge. That's the Republican Senate apparatus telling Democrats exactly what their chances are in the Lone Star State.

The $32 million ad buy, tracked by AdImpact, backs Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate race against Democratic state representative James Talarico. Senate Majority Leader John Thune made the announcement himself, as reported by Hot Air's Ed Morrissey — a signal that this isn't some outside group freelancing. The party leadership decided Texas gets the full war chest.

"The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November," said Alex Latcham, Executive Director of the Senate Leadership Fund. That $32 million exceeds what Talarico has reportedly raised by roughly 50%. When your opponent's super PAC outspends your entire campaign by half again, the math gets unfriendly fast.

But the SLF money isn't the only artillery pointed at this race. Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc, committed an additional $10 million. Combined, that's $42 million in outside spending for a single Senate seat — the kind of firepower that turns a competitive race into a rout before October even starts.

Thune was blunt about Talarico specifically. "Republicans are united in keeping him out of the U.S. Senate," the Senate Majority Leader said. That's not the usual anodyne "we support our candidate" language. That's a direct message to the Democratic recruit that leadership views stopping him as a priority, not just an obligation.

Talarico, a state representative from central Texas, was supposed to be the kind of candidate who could make Texas competitive — younger, from a swing district, running against an AG who survived an impeachment fight. Democrats have been telling themselves the Texas flip story every cycle since Beto O'Rourke made it fashionable. The story always ends the same way.

Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas's senior Republican senator, already holds one of the state's seats. After the state's AG Ken Paxton, defeated long-time Republican Senator John Cornyn, Democrats saw the election as an opportunity to flip the seat blue.

President Trump framed the broader border picture during a recent Fox News appearance. "Zero illegal aliens have entered our country from the southern border in the last 15 months. Zero," Trump said. That claim gives Paxton — the AG who sued the Biden administration over border security more times than any other state official — a results narrative that Talarico can't counter with anything except complaints about the process.

The spending pattern tells a larger story about Republican midterm strategy. Senate Leadership Fund dollars flow where leadership sees either vulnerability or opportunity. Pouring $32 million into Texas — a state Trump carried comfortably — suggests the party views the Paxton seat not as a defensive hold but as a chance to bury the "Texas is turning blue" narrative permanently. Win big enough, and the fundraising emails from the next Democratic Texas challenger get a lot harder to write.

Democrats needed this race to be close through September to keep donor money flowing. The SLF just made that argument for them — in the wrong direction.

Forty-two million dollars from two sources, a Senate Majority Leader making personal statements against the Democratic candidate, and an incumbent AG running on a border record that includes a president claiming zero crossings. Texas was supposed to be the reach state that finally reached back.

The reach just got $42 million longer.

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